No shades of Grey - little change for seat
Voters in the seat of Grey are unlikely to sway too far from their traditionally Liberal tendencies at this weekend’s federal election voting booths, according to a political expert.
In fact not much change is expected across South Australia’s 11 federal seats says Adelaide University’s head of policy and history Dr Clem Macintyre.
Dr Macintyre predicted the six Labor seats and five Liberal seats in the House of Representatives would remain largely unchanged.
He said the seat of Grey in particular would be unlikely to see any major shift.
He said notable changes might instead be noticed in metropolitan seats like Boothby, which stands as Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s “stomping ground”. Dr Macintyre said the Labor party could expect to see more positive results in that seat because Ms Gillard grew up in the area, and that momentum surrounding Australia’s first female prime minister is still high.
He suspected results could swing towards Labor in neighbouring seats like Sturt, held by Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne. But he suspected it would not dent Pyne’s chances by much.
“Pyne has a narrow margin there, but I’d be inclined to thing he’ll hold on in that contest.”
Mr Macintyre said Labor might not enjoy that same popularity in the seat of Grey.
Liberals have held Grey since 1993, however the party lost momentum at the last election when Labor’s Karin Bolton helped close the gap, turning it into a marginal seat.
A 9.39 per cent swing against the Liberals left them holding onto the seat by only 4.43 per cent.
This year, Dr Macintyre said Labor candidate Tauto Sansbury might no be able to do the same, despite gaining good ground in safe Liberal seat of Flinders during the March state election.
He said Labor may have only closed the gap in 2007 with the lost benefit of incumbency from long-sitting member Barry Wakelin, who held the seat for almost 15 years.
He also said the swing towards the left at the last federal election, could be associated with Kevin Rudd’s strong “Kevin 07” campaign.
“I think in the seat of Grey, the vote towards Labor (in 2007) was probably close to the maximum it could possibly be … although Julia Gillard may well keep that momentum going to some extent.”
Dr Macintyre said for the most part Rowan Ramsey could expect to enjoy a much greater margin this time.
Seven candidates contested the seat of Grey at the 2007 federal election, including one independent.
This weekend only four candidates have put their hand up for the contest.
Dr Macintrye associated the small numbers with the size of the largest electoral seat in the state, as well as the Liberal stronghold.
“It’s hard to campaign in a seat of that size,” he said.
Dr Macintyre said the Greens and Family First candidates, Andrew Melville-Smith and Sylvia Holland, were not expected to gain too much ground in the seat, despite the fact that the parties gained the majority of votes behind the major parties and the Nationals in 2007.
Dr Macintyre said the parties had undoubtedly put up candidates primarily to promote the parties’ policies.
He said their presence was primarily aimed at maximising their Senate votes.
He said this has been particularly relevant in Family First case where Sylvia Holland had been put up as a candidate with no services, and no hopes of winning, but to primarily boost Bob Day’s exposure as he tried to claim a Senate seat.
Nationwide, 1198 candidates are standing for 40 Senate seats and 150 seats in the Houses of Representatives.
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